I know we all want to stop talking about Flash, but I want to throw a few things out there. Mostly observations about the industry and how things have changed over the past decade.

There is a storm brewing. Maybe the perfect storm. Apple has a track record of breaking the lack of standards = lack of market share stigma that plagues many of its competitors, and with the trends occurring in the marketplace acting as a wind to their backs, they may just change the world (wide web) as we know it.

First, let’s talk about RealMedia.

RealMedia sucks, RealPlayer sucks, everyone acknowledged it and now it’s almost dead. I don’t have a lot of data for this, but look at Google Trends:

So, it’s entirely possible that a new content delivery format can replace an old one.

Let’s get some numbers out first:

According to Gartner, by 2013 mobile phones will overtake the PC as the number one web browsing device. (Source)

Additionally, growth in iPhone market share since the device’s release indicates continued strong growth.

We know a few things now:

1) 3rd party proprietary content delivery formats can be replaced when they fall out of favor due to a suitable replacement
2) Sings are pointing toward a significant shift in the way users consume web content with a major shift to mobile browsing
3) Strong growth in iPhone browser-share is projected to continue

Combine these things, and it’s likely that iPhone based devices will make up a significant portion of total browser usage in the future. It is conceivable that by 2013 iPhone based devices could account for more browser share than any other browser except perhaps Internet Explorer due to it’s corporate install base.

How does Flash fit in with all this?

First, let’s look at the number of web based applications that support flash over the past 12 months:

What’s this?!? A challenger has appeared!

While the vast majority of web based applications continue to support Flash, the growth of SilverLight adoption shows that developers will support other formats when they make sense. With IE’s market share, supporting SilverLight makes sense.

Now we know a few more things:

4) Flash still dominates web applications
5) SilverLight has enjoyed strong adoption
6) Developers are willing to support multiple platforms or switch platforms when it makes sense

What does this all have to do with the iPhone/iPad? Well, Mobile Safari is one of the few browsers that support HTML 5. HTML 5 is being touted as a replacement for Flash. The fact that it isn’t supported currently by Internet Explorer means that the majority of developers can ignore it for the time being, but what were to happen if browsers supporting this standard began taking market share?

The above graph shows the % of users with Flash installed, % of users with a recent version of flash installed (Version number greater 8), and % of users using an HTML 5 compliant browser. WOW!! Look at HTML 5 go!

Now we have a few more pieces to the puzzle:

7) The flash install base is slowly declining
8) HTML 5 compliant install base is growing rapidly (remember, mobile Safari supports HTML

When we put it all together I believe we can sum it up:

The exponential growth of mobile devices as a browsing platform coupled with the continued (and presumably stronger with the iPad) growth of the iPhone (Mobile Safari) platform will signal to developers that HTML 5 is a valid platform to switch to, thus diminishing the importance of Flash.

We have to make a few assumptions here:

- Firefox will soon fully support HTML 5 tags (3.6 has limited video tag support)
- Microsoft will build HTML 5 support into IE9 as part of its “Look we’re getting better at compliance!!!” shtick
- Apple wont cave and add flash to Mobile Safari

Over all, this is a healthy series of events. It took Flash to ween us off RealMedia, and while SilverLight is making a valiant effort, it’s going to take the mobile users to decide the outcome.

Just as the porn industry virtually decides physical media formats based on their support, the horde of iPhone and iPad users will decide the ultimate fate of Flash.

Sources: